New England at New York

The New England Patriots offense has been executing with precision for years and especially over the last three seasons. Over that span, they have averaged 32.1 points per game or more every season. This year they are even better at 35.6 ppg. But, things may be a bit different for the Pats here, as they lost Rob Gronkowski to a broken forearm last week. Gronkowski was in the midst of a spectacular season, having caught 10 of the Pats’ 21 TD passes on the season. Having a short week and playing on the road against the Jets, I look for the Patriots to run the ball a lot more in this game. The Jets rank No. 6 against the pass, but are just No. 30 against the run. So Belichick is likely to play to those numbers. Aaron Hernandez may play this week, but likely won't be near 100%. That is a big part of the Pats’ passing game that will be missing. Stephan Ridley is nearing 1,000 yards, so looks for the Pats to turn to the ground against the Jets poor run-stop unit. New York has QB problems as Mark Sanchez has gone six of their ten games with a passer rating in the 60s or less. He has just 11 TD passes to 9 INTs and has fumbled frequently. The Jets’ offense often bogs down. As a result, this team has scored 10 points or less in four of their ten games. The Patriots own a 53-25-3 ATS mark in their last 81 road games, including 11-2 ATS in their last 13 in New York. The Pats should win big here and Belichick won't take the pedal off the gas. Take New England to win and cover here. I also like the UNDER. This total is very high given the Jets offense. It opened higher and has been bet down but I still think it's too high. I look for a lot more running from both teams here as the Jets' run defense is their achilles heel, and they want to limit Brady's field time. The Jets will also use the run to limit Sanchez' risk on offense. After a 59-point offensive outburst last week from the Pats, contrarian is the way to this week. Play on New England and take the UNDER.