New England at New York

The last time the New England Patriots went through a three-game stretch without scoring at least an average of 22 points per game, they went out and scored 30+ in 13 straight. I don't think that you can hold the Belichick/Brady combo down for long - they simply have too many answers, so I expect them find more offensive success than they have had in recent weeks. The problem for the Pats of course is a defense that simply can't defend (worst in the league in yards allowed) and needs the offense performing at a high level to win. The Jets’ offense is beginning to click, especially at home where they are 4-0 on the season and have scored at least 24 points in every home game this season. The Pats are now 16-5 to the OVER in their last 21 vs. the AFC and 15-7 to the OVER in their last 22 as a dog. The Jets have been 9-1 to the OVER in their last 10 after allowing 15 points or fewer in their previous game, and are now 15-6 to the OVER in their last 21 vs. the AFC. The Jets have gone OVER to the tune of 9-2 the past two seasons vs. really good passing offenses (those averaging 7+ yards per pass). They are also 13-3 OVER during that span vs. poor passing defenses like New England's (those allowing opposing QBs to complete over 60% of their passes). None of the last five meetings have stayed UNDER the total. I like this one too to go OVER the total.