New England at New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints will try to keep pace with the unbeaten Colts as they host the New England Patriots in a heavyweight match tonight. The oddsmakers opened this game with the Saints as a 3-point favorite, indicating these teams are essentially even. The betting public has proclaimed New England the better team, pushing this line down to just 1.5 points. So apparently the 10-0 Saints are the worse team here? Hmmmm. Let's not forget that New England has lost three games on the season, and they also own the worse ATS record. For some reason, people just don't believe that the Saints can be better than the Patriots. Everyone remembers the New England 16-0 season from 2007 where their offense put up 36.8 points per game. This Saints’ offense is currently a tick better at 36.9 ppg. It will be difficult for the Pats to slow them down without QB pressure on Brees, and that isn't the Pats’ specialty. New England has recorded just 18 sacks on the season. Looking at the Patriots, it is evident that they have struggled on the road vs. good teams over the last couple of years. They have lined up with just five teams with winning records since the beginning of last season on the road, and are just 1-4. The lone win was a revenge win vs. the Dolphins last year. The Patriots are just 1-3 straight-up on the road this season, yet they are a virtual pick'em a the 10-0 Saints here on Monday night? Hmmmm. New Orleans fits into a nice situation for this game. Teams off a division win that have to come back and play on Monday Night are 47-18 ATS over the last 25 years! The Saints are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after a road game. The biggest difference in this game is the fact that the Saints can not only pass the ball, they run for over 150 yards per game as well. So the New Orleans offense can beat you either way, while the Pats are going to have to win in the air. The Saints, unlike most NFC teams, have not had trouble facing the AFC as they are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS the last two years. The Pats are just 7-15-1 ATS after a straight up win in their last 23, and just when you think their defense is ready to bite, they disappoint. After allowing 15 points or less, the Pats are 4-11 ATS in their next game. This is a huge statement game for New Orleans, and they get it at home. I'll go with the team I think is better here - the New Orleans Saints.