New England at Miami

It is becoming apparent that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have become the Phoenix Suns of the NFL - lots of offense and no defense. This Patriots’ offense is back in lethal form, scoring 30 points per game. They played one game against one of the best defenses in the NFL (the Jets) and scored 14. In their other two games, they have put up 38 per game. Opposing defenses really struggle to slow down Brady, Welker and Moss. If you have a shut-down corner or two, you have a shot. But without that, you get picked apart. Unfortunately for the Hoody, his defense has really aged. They have allowed 27.3 points per game. The scary part is that those points have come from some weak offenses (Buffalo, Cincinnati, NY Jets). The Dolphins’ pass defense is ranked No. 9 in the NFL, but they have faced quarterbacks named Fitzpatrick, Sanchez, and a very rusty Brett Favre (without Percy Harvin or Sidney Rice). Things won't be so easy against the Pats. Miami held Buffalo to 10 points, but that is Buffalo. They also held Minnesota to 10 points, but that was due in large part to four Vikings turnovers. Meanwhile the Jets put up 31 points on the Fins. This Miami defense is not as good as advertised. The Dolphins have a very effective running game and Chad Henne is becoming better with each game. He torched a Jets defense for 363 yards last week. If Buffalo can hang 28 on the Patriots, Miami at home will get theirs too. Under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 25-15 OVER during the first month of the season and they have played to five straight OVERs. The Dolphins have gone over the total to a 7-1-1 mark in their last nine at home. This series has seen the last six games average 54.3 ppg and I look for another shootout here.