Game Preview
According to the linesmakers, this is the third-biggest mismatch of the weekend. The other two bigger favorites (Philadelphia and Pittsburgh) both won but did not cover the big spreads. Both nearly lost their games. Can Miami keep it close too? Consider that the Dolphins have covered the spread 3 out of their last 4 games. The Dolphins have also been successful at containing Tom Brady. In his seven games against Miami, Brady has averaged just 168 yards per game. They held him to 76 yards earlier this season. But before you consider backing Miami, know that fading the Patroits has been a horrible proposition this year as they are 9-2 ATS this season. How have they done with spreads this big? They covered a 13 point spread against the Dolphins back in week 5 but they suffered only their second ATS loss of the season last week, laying 11 against Cincinnati.
Matchup
New England knows how important home field advantage is. They probably needed it the past couple of trips to the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh won, making this an important game for New England. Of any team in the league, I think New England is the most business-like, well balanced and least susceptible to a letdown - even against the Miami Dolphins. I think the Charlie Weis issues have settled down enough to be a non-factor this week. The Dolphins enter this game with a slightly better defense, statistically at least, than the Patriots. But, New England makes bigger plays more often. But even if we call the defenses a draw, the big difference here will be on offense. Miami's offense is just terrible. Against this Patriot defense, they will really struggle to score points here. The Fins are averaging just 4.5 yards per play, 273 yards and 16.4 points per game.
Injuries
Ty Law and Dextre Reed are doubtful for the Patriots as is Zach Thomas for the Fins. Not much of a factor here.
Systems/Trends/Angles
New England is 6-0 ATS versus poor offensive teams (averaging 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The Bottom Line
This is not an easy call, especially considering the large number of big favorites which have failed to cover the spread recently, but I like the Pats. Hard to go against a team that is 23-5-3 ATS in their last 31 games. They are just a ton better than Miami. If these teams played 100 games, I believe New England would cover this spread 65 times. However, in the other 35, Miami would get some turnovers or some early success that they parlay into a close game. Tonight I'm going to assume it's one of the 65 and go with the Pats in a blow out.
*New England -9.5 (-110) vs. MIAMI