New England at Las Vegas

The Patriots are certainly not the team they were last season. The absence of Tom Brady is the obvious difference and what was a perfect record last season has turned into an 8-5 mark so far this year. They still however get to much respect from their past success, as they have been a favorite in 12 of their 14 games this season. The problem is that Brady makes a HUGE difference, not a small one. He covers up other weaknesses that have exposed themselves this year. The Pats are not a bad team by any stretch, but the spreads are out-of-whack. The Patriots have been big chalk of a TD or more four times this season, and have not covered once. The fact is, they are failing to cover these games by 13 ppg! Last week their defense made Seneca Wallace look like a Pro Bowl QB, as he was 20-28 with three TDs and no picks, posting a QB rating of 128.9. Matt Cassel had two big weeks where he threw for six TDs and just one INT, and over 400 yards in each. But, the Patriots even lost one of those games. Most of what Cassel has done this year occured in those two games, and another where he threw three TD passes. All the other games combined show him at five TDs and nine INTs. So he has been very good in three games, and fairly bad in 10. Which Cassel shows up here? I'll put more weight on the ten games than the three. On top of that, he has had to deal with the death of his father this week, missing some practice. The Patriots defense allows over 4 ypc to opponents ground attacks and a 47.5% conversion rate on 3rd downs. This is not a team that should be laying large spreads, especially on the road. I know, no one wants to touch Oakland. The Raiders haven't won many games, but they have played better recently, winning on the road at Denver by 21, and covering two of their last three games as a double-digit dog. The Patriots are now 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after a straight up win, and just 1-7 ATS vs teams with a losing record. I'll go with the Raiders here and the points at home.