New England at Houston

I was hoping this game would set up this way, and it did. New England had the look of invincibility through 10 games at 10-0, but have since faltered in losing their last two. Certainly injuries have played their part, but this team has not lost three straight games since 2002! The fact is that they have only lost two straight games over the same period, and are 4-0 SU in the next one, and 3-1 ATS, winning by 22.5 points per game (the only loss was as a -13 point favorite, where they won by 10). Houston looked the part of a fierce competitor for four weeks, allowing just 35 total points in a four-game SU/ATS winning streak, but were beaten 30-21 in Buffalo last week. Teams that win and cover four straight games, then lose and don't cover average 12.5 ppg in their next game, and are 0-4. So the lesson may very well be that four games does not a season make. Let's remember that the Texans full body of work is 6-6, and they are a team that has been out-scored by their opponent on the season. New England's last game was a fluke, as the Eagles had a 100 yard INT for a TD, an 83-yard punt return for a TD, and a blocked punt returned for a TD. New England beat the Eagles at the line of scrimmage 427-228. There are not many games in the NFL where you out-gain your opponent by 200 yards and lose at home, especially as a huge favorite. It has happened just four times since 1989, that a home favorite of -6 or more lost when out-gaining their opponent by 195 yards or more. While many may worry about the injury-riddled New England offense, they gained 402 yards, and their season average is 404, so the injuries had little if any impact as the Belichick offense is a system, not a star, other than Tom Brady. Tom Brady is 5-1 vs. Houston in his career and has averaged 34.5 ppg against them with a passer rating of 101.4. Since the start of the 2003 season, New England is 85-44-3 ATS with a line from -3 to -7, including 48-27-3 ATS on the road. The Patriots are also 30-10-1 ATS if their opponent is off a loss, and 27-6-1 ATS if their opponent is over .200. Play on New England.