This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 10:28PM ET.
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New England at Green Bay

November 19, 2006
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

We're not sure anyone would of thought New England coming off a loss would lose at home in their next game as a double digit favorite. It is just as likely that not many would think the Packers would be sitting at 4-5 after a 1-4 start either. We don't hear too much about Favre retiring these days. The fact is his numbers match or exceed Brady's. He has two fewer interceptions and has thrown for about 250 more yards. The Packers, after getting shutout by the Bears on opening Sunday, have the 7th ranked offense in the league. It is a bit suspicious that new England has taken on Vinny Testaverde all of a sudden. Is there something ailing Brady that the Pats don't want to talk about? The offense has been very inefficient, and inconsistent lately. They rushed for over 100 yds. versus the Jets in the first quarter last week and 0 in the second. They had success running but suddenly decided to win a close game in the air, as they rushed the ball just 11 times in the entire second half. If you look at the New England injury report there are 22 names on it! That may have something to do with it. The Packers quietly have the 7th best rushing defense in the NFL, and at home may be able to slow the Pats down enough to make New Emgland win it in the air, which lately seems to play away from their strength. It would have been easy to take New England last week off a loss, and for most (close to 70%), easier to take them aagain this week. Something just isn't right, and we will go with the improved Pack getting a bundle at home.

3 units on Green Bay +6 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
LOSS
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