New England at Detroit

The New England Patriots have had a tough stretch of games with five of their last six facing Baltimore, San Diego,  Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. They have come out of it smelling like roses, looking like the front runner in the AFC for the Super Bowl. They now have to put the emotions of those tough, important games behind them on a short week and travel to Detroit to face the 2-8 Lions. It wouldn't shock me if the Pats are a bit flat here after those big games. Detroit has lost six straight Thanksgiving Day games, none of which were even close. They are improved this year (despite their record). The Patriots can score as they average nearly 29 points per game. They have put up 28+ in six of their ten games. But they have also scored 14 or less twice - both road games. And, the Pats are ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per game. They are coming off two big offensive performances, but teams that take to the road after having scored 30 or more points in two straight games have played 64% of them to the UNDER. The Pats are 6-2 to the UNDER in their last eight as a road favorite. Under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 32-20 UNDER vs. losing teams. The Lions have been 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven after allowing 30 or more points. While these two teams have combined for a 15-5 OVER mark this season, I think this one goes the other way. I like this game to go UNDER this high total.