New England at Denver

After starting the season 10-0, the Patriots suffered some injuries, especially to their offense. The results was a 10-0 team that averaged 32.3 points per game going to a 3-4 team over their last seven games averaging just 24.1 ppg. Things started to look better last week when Julian Edelman returned, perhaps the most integral part of their offense (other than Tom Brady). The Patriots cashed in against a tough Kansas City defense that had allowed 12.5 ppg during an 11-game winning streak. New England more than doubled what the Chiefs opponents output had averaged during the streak, scoring 27 points. Against a somewhat overrated Broncos defense, these Patriots should score. Denver will go with Peyton Manning once again here. The Broncos offense has become a bit steadier over the last month, scoring 20+ in each of their last four games and have put points on the board in 10 of their last 11 quarters of play. This change occurred after coming up empty in two quarters of each game in their three previous games. Denver averaged 22 ppg in the 11 games that Manning start to finish. He is certainly not the same Peyton Manning of old, but he'll be able to find the end zone against a Pats defense that is the worst of the four teams remaining. New England has some lofty numbers supporting the OVER in this game. They are 39-16 to the OVER in their last 55 vs. a winning team including 13-5 to the OVER since last season. They are also 57-27 to the OVER in their last 84 in conference play and 10-2 OVER the past two seasons in expected close games (line of -3 to +3). The Pats are also 39-16 to the OVER when following a spread win. In the Bill Belichick era, New England is 73-57 OVER in road gamesand 10-1 OVER revenging a road upset loss. Denver is 34-15 to the OVER in their last 49 vs. a winning team, and the OVER has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between these two. Take the OVER in the AFC Championship game.