New England at Denver

Tough one here. How do you go against either of these teams? Everyone can come up with arguments to back either. But, in all honesty, who wants to go against either in this situation? New England simply hasn't lost in the playoffs in the ten games in the Brady/Belichick era. They are peaking at the right time. If we look at New England's season-long statistics, they don't compare at all. But, we really need to focus on their last 8 games and throw out the the first half of the season. In the second half of the year, they were 6-2 (now 7-2 after last week's win) and held opponents to under 15 points per game. They crushed Jacksonville, a 12-4 team, last week. Can't fault anyone for wanting to ride this train. But, I'm predicting a derailment. No team has won three straight Super Bowls and I predict that streak to be safe after this game. New England can certainly win this one. But, I don't see it as likely. Not against the Broncos at home. Denver is very powerful and DESPARATELY wants this one. Sure, with a win they advance and that's a lot of motivation. But, there are years of pent up frustration here for Shanahan who hasn't done squat since losing Elway. He finally has the team to do it here. These two teams played earlier in the season as the Broncos won 28-20. But, that was then and this is now. Not a lot to compare. Both teams are better, especially New England. But, Denver is simply too strong to ignore. At home, over their last ten games, they have outscored opponents 2-1 (262-131). In those games, they rushed for 177 yards per game and allowed an averag of 73 yards per game on the ground. Let's look at Denver's performance this year. In their 13 wins, they won by an average score of 26-13. One of their losses, opening day at Miami, can be described as nothing more than a fluke. The other two losses were very close and against very good teams. The Giants beat them in New York by one point very late in the game and KC beat them a month ago by four. Who can blame Denver for losing to Kansas City in Arrowhead in December? Jake Plummer is still susceptible to that big mistake and if this is the game he makes it, New England wins. But, he's shown that he can avoid it thus far. Visiting teams that won their first playoff game by 14+ points do very poorly ATS in their next game (37% ATS). In 2004, this system went 4-1 as both Indy and Minnesota waltzed into this round off big Wildcard wins and went on to lose both SU and ATS. If Belichick can devise and execute a scheme to stop Denver's rushing attack (which leads the league) and put this game on Jake's shoulders, the Pats could win. But, I just think this is too big a power mismatch with Denver well rested and ready. Two stars on the Broncos minus the field goal.