New England at Cincinnati

Man, Cincinnati looks good. They remind me of the Colts of the past few years: A scary offense that propels them to big victories over any and all comers. Think bettors and linesmakers have noticed? I do. Perfect time to fade them! This is a situational play vs. a stats or talent play. On paper, Cincy wins this game by 10 points. But, they have to be getting a bit overconfident at this point. I mean they are 3-0 winning all three by a touchdown or more. Their last win was on the road against the Super Bowl champs - their nemisis Pittsburgh. ESPN analysts are singing their praises. So, this is potential letdown time for the Bengals. New England on the other hand is off an embarrasing home loss as a touchdown favorite on national TV. Denver came in and spanked the Pats in their house by 10 points. You can bank on the fact that Belichick will have his team ready this week. The Bengals are again living off the turnover. They have forced 11 already so far and used 3 last week to get the victory. That's all well and good if they keep coming. But, if they come up on the short end of the turnover margin, things won't be as easy for them. We don't see the Pats as underdogs often and with Belichick at the helm, they are 27-16 ATS in this role. He's also 22-9 ATS off a poor rushing performance (75 or fewer yards) and a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road after a loss by 10+ points. This guy is labeled a genius for a reason. The combination of Cincy winning last week vs. Pittsburgh and New England suffering an embarrassing loss provides a great opportunity here to take the Pats plus 6 points.