The Patriots are coming off a big (unexpected) win against Buffalo while Chicago lost their sixth straight against Philadelphia (they did cover the spread, however as predicted here).
Chicago’s defense is getting back on track and finally learning how to play with their injuries. They held one of the league’s top teams and Donovan McNabb to just 19 points last week and were inches away from pulling out the victory at the end of the game.
The Bears are a different team, psychologically, with Miller who somehow seems to give them a chance to win in most games. If Miller can go, I expect Chicago to stay close at home.
The Patriots have realized they need to run the ball to have success as demonstrated by Antowain Smith’s 100+ yard game last week. The Bears, despite having not performed well defensively, have shown the ability to stop the run (they are ranked 7th in the league in yards allowed per carry at just 3.9). I expect the Chicago D and Brian Urlacher to continue their improvement this week.
The Bears also qualify for a 49-17 underdog situation and home dogs off four or more consecutive losses are 64% against the spread.
Another “contrary” pick I admit, but it worked with Chicago last week!