New England at Buffalo

The New England Patriots offense is downright scary right now. The Green Bay Packers held them to 249 yards, yet the Pats still managed to score 31 points. That may sound like a lot of points, but in fact it was their lowest output since week 8. This offense now is actually better, statistically, then it was in 2007. The run they had that year got a lot more press because they were undefeated. This year, they have snuck up a bit as they started slow. But make no mistake about it, this offense is crazy good, averaging 32 points per game (37.8 over the second half of the season). In fact, this may be the best offense of all time. Am I crazy? Consider who they have played and what they have scored in those games. The Pats have done it versus the top defenses in the league, scoring 28 vs. Minnesota, 39 vs. Pitt, 45 vs. the Jets, 36 against Chicago and 31 vs. Green Bay. They have faced the top 5 defenses in points allowed this season and averaged 33.8 per game against them! This number looks like a weather hedge by the oddsmakers, but that doesn't slow Brady down at all as they went for 36 in a snow and wind storm in Chicago two weeks ago. New England's achilles heel is defense, having allowed 20 or more in 71% of their games. Ryan Fitzpatrick has gone from the scrap pile of NFL quarterbacks, to a bona fide starter. The Bills have also played eight games against teams with winning records this season, and have allowed them 29.6 ppg in those games. The Pats are now 14-2 to the OVER in their last 16 and under Bill Bellichick, they are 17-5 OVER after a run of 4+ straight wins. The Pats are 10-1 OVER this season as a favorite and are capable of getting to the total here themselves. I like the OVER in this one.