New England at Buffalo

The lone underdog pick this week will again make some nervous. Last week we faded New England laying 10 points to the Jets. New England won by 13, covering - making it only the second time out of seven that I have been wrong in picking Pats games this year. We'll give it another go this week. The Jets couldn't muster more than 3 points in that game which surprised me. Entering that game, New England was allowing opponents nearly 400 yards per game. No wonder with 9 players on injured reserve including six defensive backs. I guess the Jet's 10 players on IR was too much to overcome. Needless to say, that New England victory didn't overly impress me. New England is a better team than Buffalo... barely. With this game being in Buffalo, I give the edge to the Bills. I know New England is 7-5 and winners of three of their last four. But, those victories came against the Jets, New Orleans and Miami. Two of them were at home. New England's win last week has pushed this line above the magic 3 points. But, teams off a dominating win like New England had typically underperform the following week. In fact, New England qualifies for a related situation here that is 4-2 this year and over 90% lifetime. Despite Buffalo's problems this year, they are actually 5-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS at home! Their one outright loss came against a very good Carolina team. They are playing great defense at home, holding opponents to just 11.7 points per game. I see Buffalo keeping this one close. One star on the Bills plus the 3.5.