New England at Baltimore

You know that Tom Brady can't wait to get back on the field right now. He threw a potential game-winning TD pass last week on the final drive to Danny Amendola, who inexcusably dropped it. As a result, the Pats lost a key game and Brady was clearly pissed in the post-game presser. His focus this week has to have been laser sharp. The Patriots aren't underdogs a lot, but when they are they usually deliver. And, when they lost their previous game, they are even a better bet. Many think of the Pats as a team that will struggle against a team playing well defensively, as the totals in their games are usually set pretty high because of their offense. But since 2002, the Pats are actually 71-44 ATS to a total of 45 or less. They tend to have more trouble with teams that have the ability to score with them. Baltimore is on short rest, and a huge emotional finish in Detroit as they won on a 61 yard field goal. The Patriots are going to be edgy off a game they lost that they should have won, and the Ravens are emotionally drained off a physical game they could have lost, but won. They have other issues as Joe Flacco will wear a knee brace in this game, as he injured his knee vs. Detroit and has short rest to get healthy. That's not good when you consider the fact that the Ravens' running game has been non-existent. New England is 35-17-1 off a loss, and 53-22-2 ATS in their last 87 after generating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. In the Belichick era, the Pats are 31-18 ATS as a road dog and 10-2 ATS on the road after a road loss. And after doing so, they are also 17-5 to the OVER in their last 22. I guess an object in motion stays in motion, as it applies to the Brady Bunch. Make the play on New England and the OVER in this one.