Minnesota at St. Louis

There isn't an argument to be made here that St. Louis belongs on the field against the Vikings as the Vikes are a perfect 4-0 and the Rams a very imperfect 0-4. We saw on Monday night a Vikings team that looks like Super Bowl material. But that was a huge game for them and Brett Favre. How do they get excited here, on the short week, facing the Rams after that huge Monday Night game? Brett Favre feels like he just won the Super Bowl as beating the Packers was about as important to him. To add fuel to the letdown-fire, the Vikings have monster games vs. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay again coming over the next month. If there were ever time for a breather, this week is it. The Rams offense has already been shut-out twice and has produced 21 points for opposing teams while generating just 24 themselves. This has to be as ugly a looking game as you could find on the card. That thought has been embraced by the public as well as they are lining up at nearly 90% on the Vikings, as if they already knew the final score. If the NFL truly worked that way everyone would be a millionaire. Sports bettors would be punching these giveaway easy win games each week and living the high-life in Beverly Hills. The problem for those folks is that the the NFL doesn't work that way. Despite favorites covering at a 67% rate the past two weeks, ugly is what covers in the NFL long term. If it didn't work this way, the bookmakers would be broke. So the argument here isn't to promote St. Louis as a good team, or disrobe a 4-0 Viking team. Instead the case is to be made for how classic an NFL game this is. A similar setup occurred in week six a year ago as the high-flying Dallas Cowboys were installed as a 9-point favorite coming to St. Louis. The Cowboys lost that game by 20! The Lions didn't win a single game last year, but they went on the road in their last six games as a double-digit dog and went 6-0 ATS. The fact is, 0-4 teams are 34-17 ATS since 1990. How ugly do you think those teams looked going into those games? It doesn't get much uglier than 0-4. But, they got the money 67% of the time. Put those same teams up as a double-digit dog and they are 14-4 ATS and if they are a double-digit home dog, they are 3-0! While Joe Square is afraid of the chance he'll have his money on a team that loses 27-3, we aren't Joe Square. We are willing to risk that outcome, knowing that long term we are on the right side. Ugly is where the money is in the NFL and mine is on the Rams.