The NFL gets underway with a heavyweight matchup between the Vikings and the Super Bowl champion Saints in a rematch of last year's NFC Title game. In that game, Minnesota out-gained the Saints 475-257 but lost thanks to three fumbles and two interceptions. These are two high-octane offenses, and the public is already weighing in on the OVER at nearly 70%. I'm in the other camp on this one. While these teams would very likely put up 50+ points in mid-season, this is week one. There is often offensive rust to shake off early in the season, making lofty totals difficult to reach. Since 1983 there have been 33 week one games with a total set at 47 or higher and the UNDER has come through in 24 of those (73%)! The NFL today is based on timing, with wide-open passing attacks. It often takes some time for these high-powered offenses to find that timing. It stands to reason that week one high totals have had a difficult time going OVER. The Saints have sure been a product of that. Over the last 11 years their week one totals have failed to top the number eight times (73%). The Vikings will be led by a 41-year-old quarterback with an ankle issue. Favre took very few snaps in the preseason and he will be without his leading receiver from a year ago. I would expect to see a lot of Adrian Peterson here as the Saints harassed Favre pretty good in the NFC Championship game. I like this one to stay UNDER the posted total.
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