Minnesota at New England

The New England Patriots have not been the same team since trading Randy Moss. Sure, Tom Brady is still there, and they have a slew of possession receivers. But, they lack the stretch-the-field ability now. Last week Tom Brady threw for just 159 yards in a 23-20 win over San Diego. The Pats offense mustered all of 179 yards of offense in that game. But, the Patriots scored 23 points and won, masking the fact that it was an awful offensive performance. Minnesota is a team that is better than their record. They are a desperate team that is going to come out with a lot of emotion for this game. When things hit rock bottom as they have here (2-4 record, coming off a bitter loss, and their QB ailing), oftentimes it's time to back a team. This number is inflated with Brett Favre nursing ankle issues. But knowing Favre, he will come out and somehow produce a big game, especially against a New England secondary that hasn't been able to stop anyone yet. New England ranks 30th in the league in pass defense, giving up 282 yards per game through the air. New England is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 90 or less on the ground in their last game. The Vikings have come up big after a straight-up loss, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 in that situation. I like the Vikings to at least keep this close. I also like the OVER in what I see to be a shootout. New England is finding ways to score, averaging 29.5 ppg. The Vikings are playing to the OVER on the road vs. a team with a winning home record, going 40-21 to the OVER in their last 61. They are also 13-4 OVER the past three seasons vs. teams that average 24+ points per game. The Vikings are also 44-18 OVER on the road following an ATS loss. I like the Vikings and the OVER here.