Minnesota at Miami

Miami has done very well the past two weeks. They went into Chicago and smacked down the undefeated Bears 31-13 as a 13.5 point dog. Huge win (but more on that later). Then they follow that up with a 13-10 win vs. Kansas City. The public is officially backing the Dolphins at this point. Nevermind that they are just 2-6 ATS on the season. Nevermind that prior to those two surprise wins, the Fins lost at home by 10 points to the Packers and to the Jets the week before that. Nevermind they lost six of their first seven. Is Miami all of a sudden that much better? We don't think so. Minnesota is the opposite. They were 4-2 SU and 4-1 ATS coming out of week seven. They looked good. Then they laid a huge egg against New England on Monday night, followed up by consecutive upset losses to San Francisco and Green Bay. The public can't get behind this team right now. But we can. Tom Brady shredded this Vikings defense. But outside of that game, no one has! But that's the game everyone remembers. Minny's defense is ranked 5th best in the league. Outside of the New England game, Minny has not allowed more than 23 points. And if it not for a -6 turnover ratio the past three games, they might be 6-3 at this point instead of 4-5. They have held seven of nine opponents to under 20 points. Miami's offense is just plain bad. They are ranked 25th in the league in scoring. We don't see the Fins scoring a lot here as they have reached 20 points just two times this year. One of those was that Chicago game but note that they were the recipient of 6 Bears turnovers in that one! In what should be a low scoring game here, note that Miami is 1-9 ATS the past three seasons in games with posted total of 35 or less. Minnesota is the better overall team here that happens to be out of the graces of the public. But we know better and we look for them to bounce back in this one against an inferior opponent.