Game Preview
This should be a fun game to watch as the top two offenses in the league square off against two terrible defenses. The ABC cameras better be lubed up well because they'll be doing alot of swiveling and turning to keep up with all of the footballs flying through the air tonight. The winner of this game could very well be the last team to score. The absence of Randy Moss is one reason that Minnesota finds themselves a full touchdown underdog. The line started at Indianapolis minus 6 but has climbed to a touchdown on confirmation of Moss not playing a meaningful role, if he plays at all. Too bad for the Vikings because Moss plays his best on Monday Night (11 touchdowns and five 100+ yard games). The Vikings are trying to avoid a repeat of their collossal collapse last year at this time (they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine November games). But, Minnesota's won five of the last six meetings between these two clubs. Can they make it six of seven or will Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James be too much?
Matchup
Which defense can pull a few rabbits out of their hat and force a punt or two in this game? The answer to this question probably tells us who covers this spread. I think it is more likely to be Minnesota. Indianapolis' defense is just awful. The loss of Moss will hurt the Vikings offense but agains this defense, I think they'll still have their way. The Colts defense is allowing a league-worst 419 yards per game and and over 25 points per game. Only the Raiders, Saints and 49ers allow more points. The worst part of Indy's defense is their pass defense, allowing over 300 yards per game. The best part of Minnesota's potent offense is Culpepper. Even without Moss, Daunte should have a huge game here, utilizing Nate Burleson, Marcus Robinson, Kelly Campbell and his feet. The last time it faced a top offense, this Colt defense allowed nearly 600 yards and 45 points last week against the Chiefs. They allowed 27 points to Jacksonville the week before that, for goodness sake! The Jags average just 16 points per game and haven't scored more than 22 against anyone else (and that was against the pourous KC defense). Indianapolis can't stop anyone, never mind a Minnesota offense with Daunte Culpepper and a healthy Onterrio Smith. Statistically, Indianapolis is a bit stronger overall based on my analysis, but not seven points stronger. Here's an interesting stat that sheds some light on which of these two defenses is worse: Opposing quarterbacks have completed 58.8% of their passes against Minnesota. Against Indianapolis, QB's have completed 69.7%.
Injuries
Outside of Moss, Minnesota RB Mewelde Moore is questionable due to an ankle injury. But, that doesn't really matter as the Vikings have Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams to handle the carries. No major injuries of note for Indianapolis in this one.
Systems/Trends/Angles
In addition to Moss being out, another reason this spread is so high is that Indianapolis is playing at home on Monday night. But, did you know that the Colts are 1-5 ATS over the past three seasons when playing a winning team at home? They are also 1-6 ATS at home in weeks 5-9 over the same time period. Visiting underdogs of 7 or less that have allowed lots of points for a couple of straight games are 3-1 this year, 22-10 over the past three years, and 65% over the past 10 years.
The Bottom Line
Last week's big loss to the Giants has a lot of people thinking the Vikings can't win without Randy Moss. I don't buy it. There are a couple of reasons why I'm not so sure Indianapolis deserves so much credit here, even though they are playing on Monday Night at home. The first reason is their poor record at home against good teams as mentioned above. In addition, Minnesota plays very well on the road. The Vikings are 2-1 this year, completing 73% of passes, and putting up over 500 yards per game away from home. Guess who they played in the one road loss? Philadelphia. MNF dogs this year are 5-2 ATS and I like that trend to continue tonight. Minnesota's defense is atrocious and will get shredded by Manning and company but Indianpolis' D is worse. They don't deserve to be a 7 point favorite and the line move from 6 to 7 is very big here, in my opinion. As I've mentioned, I think this game could go to the team that scores last and in that case, I like the 7 points.