Minnesota at Green Bay

Minnesota's on a bit of a slide. They've followed a four-game win-streak with two straight losses. Green Bay, on the other hand, has reeled off three straight decisive wins after starting the season 1-4. But I'm not overly impressed with those wins. They came against three teams (Detroit, Dallas and Washington) that have a combined record of 10-14. In fact, Green Bay's entire schedule has been one of the weakest in the league as they've also played Carolina, Chicago and Tenneesse. Minnesota, even without Moss for the past few weeks, still has the top-rated offense in the game. And, they'll have starting RB Melwelde Moore back from injury this week. Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS at home vs. good rushing teams (>4.5 yards per carry) over the past three seasons. Underdogs that average 5+ yards per carry cover the spread nearly 7 out of 10 times in the NFL. I expect a bounce-back of sorts from the Vikings in this one and I expect them to keep it close. Bet 110 to win 100 on the Vikings.