Minnesota at Chicago

The evidence is mounting, game by game, that the once stout Vikings defense is a shell of its former self. Yes, they are ranked #5 in yards allowed per game. But that is very misleading with Minnesota allowing 29, 21, 28, 28 and 24 points in their last five games. It isn't totally the defense's fault, as their special teams play is bad and they have an error-prone QB that is aging. But the point is, teams are scoring a lot on this team. Chicago has gotten eight yards per attempt out of Jay Cutler and, since the Vikings forte is against the run, I think the ball is going to be in the air a lot in this one. The Vikings are not the same team on the road and stand at just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 roadies vs a team with a winning home record. The Bears are stepping up as a small dog, now at 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 taking three or less. Under Brad Childress, the Vikes are just 6-15 ATS on the road after a home game. I like the Bears to pull this one out. I also like the OVER. Not only has the recent decline of the Vikings defense led to five straight OVERS, but they have also played OVER to a 40-19-1 mark vs a team with a winning home mark. The Bears are in the OVER zone vs. road teams with a losing road record at 12-5 to the OVER. The last four in this series in Chicago all have topped the total. Under Brad Childress, Minnesota is 23-11 OVER afollowing an ATS loss, including 11-3 OVER after back-to-back ATS losses. I like Chicago and the OVER here.