Minnesota at Atlanta

The Vikings have gone 3-10 in their last 13 NFL games going back to last year. Included in there however are losses to some good teams with a pair of losses to Green Bay and dropping games to San Diego, Chicago, Detroit and Oakland. Now they have to travel to Atlanta with the likelihood that Adrian Peterson will be on the sidelines. As a result, the line on this game is large. The loss of Peterson changes the Minnesota offense, which could be a good thing. Percy Harvin has a lot of talent and Christian Ponder has been effective. Toby Gerhart is a suitable backup. Last week Jake Locker looked pretty good vs. the Falcons defense, rallying his team from a 20-point deficit to make a game of it. The Vikings are still good on defense and missing a key weapon on offense, usually inspires the defense to be even better. The Vikings are tied for the lead in sacks, so they will be pressuring Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has not been as cool under pressure as he was a year ago, throwing more INTs this year than he did last year with over 200 less attempts. The Falcons are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite. And, while the Ryan-led Falcons have been great at home (23-7 straight-up), covering large numbers has been a different story. As a favorite of more than 9 points, this team is just 2-3 ATS in this building. The Faclons have also played to an amazing 36-14-3 mark to the UNDER after allowing 90 rushing yards or less the previous week. This low total is expected to be even lower, with a huge dog that is over-reacting to Peterson being out. The Vikings have gone 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine on the road. Play on Minnesota and take the UNDER here.