Minnesota at Arizona

Minnesota is overrated. More on this in a minute. The good news for the Cards is that the status of Kurt Warner, who sat out last week's game with a concussion, is listed as probable for this big game vs. Minnesota. Arizona gets a lot of ink regarding Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin and their play-making offense, but the defense has done some catching up. The yardage numbers aren't pretty as they rank No. 24 in yards allowed, but the one that counts the most is points allowed, where they are No. 13. They have only allowed two teams to score more than 21 points in nine games this season. Arizona has been a hot team and are 6-2 in their last eight and really should be 7-1 if not for the old "prevent defense" and a lot of bad luck that allowed Tennessee to march 99 yards for the winning score as time ran out last week. This team has taken on the "big game" philosophy as they really seem to be at their best as a FG favorite or less, or as a dog at home where they have cashed eight of their last ten. They show up most in the biggest games as tehyh are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games vs. teams at .750 or better. Over the past three seasons, they are 9-1 ATS vs. teams like Minnesota that outscore their opponents by 6+ ppg. The Vikings have been living on home cooking, and believe it or not, have not played on the road in over a month. They have had three straight at home after their bye week, so this will be their first time on the road since November 1, and should find the going a lot more difficult. They have had road tilts vs. St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland, and this one will be different without the home fans pumping them up. In their only real road test this year (vs. Pitt), the Vikes suffered their lone defeat of the season. Back to the fact that Minnesota is overrated. This is a good team, but not as good as it may appear on the surface. Minnesota has had the pleasure of feasting on the easiest schedule inthe NFL. They have played Cleveland, Detroit (twice), St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco and Chicago. Their opponents for 2009 went just .420 last season and this season they are holding form. The Vikes have played just three winning teams all year and two of those teams (Pitt and Balt) are barely above .500. On top of all that, this team has had an inordinate amount of luck. Their best players have remained healthy, and they are +8 in turnovers (ranked in the top 5 in the NFL). When/if that luck evens out, this team won't look as powerful as they have. Finally, Arizona is 8-1 ATS at home the past three seasons when coming off a loss. I like Arizona plus the points here in a game that, with a healthy Warner, they can win outright. I also like the UNDER here. Minnesota's offense has looked unstoppable for most of the season. The one place they stumbled was on the road vs. a decent defense (scored 17 at Pittsburgh). Arizona's defense has allowed just 18.5 ppg over the past month with only one team scorign more than 21 on them since September. The Vikings’ defense has stepped up of late allowing 10 or less in three straight games. The Vikings are also playing low off of a two-TD or more win where their next game has seen the UNDER prevail at 15-3. I like the Cards here and the UNDER.