Miami at Tampa Bay

The Miami Dolphins have made more noise off the field than on. The hazing issues are a big deal. How will it affect this team? My feeling is that at least in the first game after such negative news, the team in this spot will rally together in an "us against the world" mentality. If Miami does bring their A-game, it is far better than any game the Bucs can manufacture. Tampa Bay was charged up last week against a Seattle team that was sleep walking through the first half. The Bucs jumped out to a stunning 21-0 lead. Then Seattle woke up and the Bucs remembered who they are, with Seattle winning the game in overtime. Teams off an overtime loss as a road dog that are playing their next game at home cover just 39.5% of the time. Miami is just a half-game out of a wildcard spot, so they are not going to take this game lightly. Teams that are exactly .500 play with an incentive to get over the .500 mark. Winless teams are often good bets late in the season, they are not against a .500 team where the .500 team is 15-8 ATS from week seven on. Tampa Bay is simply an awful team, allowing 30 points per game in their last four games. They really know how to ride negative momentum as the Bucs are 4-16 ATS the past three seasons after back-to-back losses. They are also a brutal 10-28-1 ATS in their last 39 at home. Meanwhile Miami has allowed 20 or more in their last seven, so I think there will be enough opportunities here on both sides to outscore the total. Tampa Bay is 15-6 OVER the past three seasons after an OVER last game. Take the Dolphins and the OVER.