Miami at Tampa Bay

These teams usually end up in a war as they duke it out for Florida bragging rights every year. The Dolphins have won four of the last six battles, but the margins in these games are almost always tiny and down to the wire, so getting a nice handful of points here is the way to go. The last six years have seen this game end in a margin of 4 points or less five of the six times. They have more history on their side as well, with NFLX teams as a dog of 3.5-10 points off two wins, and unbeaten in the preseason are 25-7 ATS. Miami also sports a 26-12 ATS mark in their last 38 as a preseason dog. The points loom large here, so take Miami.