Miami at San Francisco

Things have gotten a little bit complicated in the Bay Area. The only thing that would bring into question Jim Harbaugh's decision to bench Alex Smith in favor of Colin Kaepernick would be a loss in a game they were supposed to win. Ooops. I am not saying it wasn't the right decision. I think it was. But, now the confidence that surrounded this team is cracking a bit, thanks to having lost or tied three of their last seven games. Teams now have tape in multiple games on what to do to have a chance against the Niners as the Giants destroyed them, and the Rams have now beaten or tied them twice. Most expect a big rebound here, but laying 10 points in the NFL is a tall order, especially in a game that is expected to be very low-scoring. The spread in this game reprsents over 25% of the entire total. Miami is not a great team, but they are capable and their defense, which has allowed under 21 points per game on average, keeps them in most games. Last week they kep the high-powered Patriots to their lowest output of the season. They have allowed more than 24 points in just two games all season and San Francisco's offense is decent, but not great. Underdogs of more than a touchdown this season are 24-14 ATS. And, Miami gets up for good opponents. They have gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. winning teams. Take Miami to stay within this huge number.