Miami at Philadelphia

Miami has the top offense in the league with 498.7 yards per game. QB Tua Tagovailoa (14 TDs, 5 INTs) has great weapons in RBs De'Von Achane (460 yards, 12.1 ypc), RB Raheem Mostert (429 yards, 5.7 ypc), and WR Tyreek Hill (814 yards). They're No. 1 in rushing (181.8 yards per contest) and points (37.2 per game), plus seventh on third down (44.07%). NFL road teams like the Dolphins where the line is +3 to -3 that force one or fewer turnovers per game are 58-27 ATS after back-to-back contests with a turnover margin of minus -1 or less. Philadelphia comes home from a two-game road trip where they averaged 18.5 points, including a 20-14 loss to the Jets. The defense is just 22nd on third down (41.56%). NFL home favorites off a road loss are 27-64 ATS in the first half of the season, and home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a two-game road trek are 4-24 ATS in weeks 5 through 9. Play Miami.