Miami at New York

The Miami Dolphins are a couple of Ted Ginn dropped passes away from a 4-2 record. Instead, they sit at 2-4. This team is better than their record and they are the better team coming into this game. The teams against which Miami has struggled defensively this season have one thing in common: an elite quarterback. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers have had success vs. the Fins secondary this season. They aren't facing one of those quarterbacks this week. After a great start, Mark Sanchez has been under siege and has proven that pressure forces him into some drastic rookie mistakes. That has led to just six TD passes to ten INTs and a QB rating of 61.5. The Dolphins have feasted on QBs that don't rank in the upper half of the league at the time they played them. They are 11-1 straight up since the beginning of last year against a QB not in the top 10 in QB rating. Their wildcat offense has been a smashing success all season, including vs. the Jets two weeks ago. In that game, New York had all-world nose tackle Kris Jenkins who will not be there this time around. New York has run the ball well this season, but the Dolphins held them to 87 yards on 24 carries. If that happens again, the Jets success will depend on Sanchez which is not a high confidence situation. To make matters worse for New York, Leon Washington is now gone as an offensive weapon. The Dolphins have come up big on the road against teams with a winning home record where they are 12-2 ATS in their last 14. The Jets stand at just 5-13-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. I like the Dolphins here as I think they are the better team on the field, getting points.