Game Preview
Miami pulled off a huge upset win last week, notching their first "W" of the season by beating the St. Louis Rams in a 31-14 blowout. The Jets lost a close one to the then-undefeated Patriots. That game now goes down in history as the last win in New England's record 21-game win streak. The Dolphins victory was due, in large part, to their recent discovery of a running game. They ran for over 100 yards for the second straight week which took some pressure off QB Jay Fiedler. Fiedler was solid and mistake-free (13/17 for 203 yards and 2 TD, 0 INT) in the game. Gee - when you have a great defense, a run-oriented, mistake-free offense smells like a recipie for success. Miami will be trying to repeat that success this week. But, clearly the Jets are the better team and they're at home on Monday Night. We saw the power of that situation last week when the lowly Bengals beat up on the Broncos under the Monday Night lights.While Miami's got the 4th overall defense, they run defense is actually ranked near the bottom of the league (27th). Expect to see a lot of Curtis Martin in this one. Can Miami pull off another big upset or will this one be a blowout?
Matchup
I still think the Jets, while a very good team, are overrated. Their 5-0 start came against teams that were 6-21 coming into this week. Against the Patriots, they only managed 268 total yards and 7 points. I'll come back to this in a second. Make no mistake - the Jets are the superior club here. They'll have the advantage when they are on defense and when they are running the ball. But, the performance against the Patriots exposed this: the Jets are a tale of two different offenses. When they have played against poor or average defenses this year (Cincinnati, San Diego, and San Francisco), they have scored 29 points per game. When they've faced good defenses (Miami, Buffalo, and New England), they have averaged just 13.3 per game. So, I expect the Jets to score three touchdowns or less tonight. Can Miami put up more than that? It'll be a stretch but they can do it. Either way, I do expect them to score more than 14 and cover the spread. If Miami can keep their revitalized running game going, they should keep this one close. If they get a turnover or two, they can win it.
Injuries
Miami may be without kicker Olindo Mare (calf) and RB Sammy Morris (wrist) but should have Jay Fiedler and Jason Taylor. Nothing too notible on the Jets side of the ball.
Systems/Trends/Angles
The underdog in MNF games is 5-1 this year. Being on such a terrible run, the Dolphins have qualified for quite a few nice trends over the past few weeks as the public fades them hard. They are in another such situation tonight. Underdogs in this range that have covered the spread less than three times out of their last seven games when facing a winning team are an incredible 25-4 ATS.
The Bottom Line
Miami has certainly had their problems this year. But teams that start off as bad as the Dolphins have typically become nice values about mid-season. By this time, the linesmakers are installing inflated spreads as John Q. Public sees a Jets blowout here. Also, teams that are this bad tend to figure things out after a while. The Dolphins were thrown a major curveball right before the start of the season. They lost Ricky Williams who WAS their offense. They were not able to adjust to that early-on. But, by now, they are figuring out how they need to play to stay in games. I like the fact that they have improved offensively over the past two games. They could have easily won two weeks ago and last week they beat a team no one gave them a chance against. They now have a bit of confidence and know they can win a game. I like the Fins to keep this one close tonight and with a few lucky bounces, they could surprise against a slightly overrated Jets squad. Look for this line to creep up to 7.5 by game time which would be a very nice bonus.
**Miami +7 (-110) vs. NY Jets (risk -110 to win 100)
*Miami straight-up (+260) vs. NY Jets (risk -50 to win 130)