Miami at New York

In this AFC East rivalry game between a pair of 5-6 teams, home field has meant little. The road team is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings between the Dolphins and New York Jets. Despite their struggles, Miami has been outscored by just 16 points on the season. Contrast that with the Jets, who've been outscored by 101 points! This is a solid Miami defensive front that has allowed 22, 20, 16 and 20 points the last four games. You can't run on the Jets, but Miami's passing game has plenty of weapons for QB Ryan Tanehill, who has more TDs than picks, and is off a 310 yard game against the mighty Carolina defense. They face a Jets team that is young and soft in the secondary, ranked #23 in the NFL, allowing 250 yards passing per game. They are a dog but face a rookie QB in Geno Smith who has eight TDs and 18 picks. The Jets are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games against a team with a losing road record. This is a low total and the Jets are on a 4-1 run OVER the total, and the OVER is 7-3 in the Jets' last 10 against the AFC East. Under Rex Ryan, New York is 24-10 OVER in expected close battles (games with lines of +3 to -3) and 18-9 OVER vs. division opponents. This team is also 20-8 OVER since Ryan took over when coming off an UNDER. Take Miami and play the OVER here.