Miami at New Orleans

It might be tempting to back this upstart Miami team that is 3-0, getting nearly a TD here. But hang on a sec. This team isn't without issues. For one, they haven't protected their quarterback very well as Ryan Tannehill has gone down an NFL-high 14 times through three games. One reason for that is that the Dolphins simply do not have a running game, generating just 3.2 yards per carry. That has left them in bad spots in terms of down and distance, and opponents are pinning their ears back and going after the quarterback. New Orleans was a horrific defense last season but they have made great strides this season, allowing less than 13 ppg through three contests. The Saints offense finally got untracked last week, putting up 31 points vs. Arizona. After that win, New Orleans is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 in this building. Drew Brees is lethal when facing a bad pass defense. Over the past three seasons, the Saints are 11-2 ATS vs. teams like Miami that allow 235+ passing yards per game. They are also 19-9 ATS over that span as a favorite including 14-3 ATS as home chalk. Lay the points with New Orleans here.