Miami at New England

The Patriots had some trouble with the talented Jets defensive line last week, so they threw most of the time. The same game plan will be seen here too, as they ask QB Tom Brady to throw short quick passes to avoid the Miami pass rush. Brady threw for 355 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns and he will do well against this weaker Miami secondary. Beating Tennessee and Houston are one thing, but Miami steps WAY up in class against the best team in the NFL right now. The Dolphins are on a 3-8 ATS run, 2-7 ATS against the AFC, as well as 0-5 ATS vs. the AFC East. Miami has simplified the offense after the coaching change, looking to run the football more then utilizing play-action passing when teams gear up for the run. However, that is what New England game plans for best and they have the athletic linebackers to stuff the run and turn to pick up tight ends and running backs out of the backfield during play-action. The Patriots are 14-6-1 ATS at home and 35-15-3 ATS in their last 53 games in October. This is a great matchup for the underrated New England defense that is allowing 21 points per game and ranks fourth in the league with 21 sacks. The Dolphins have also come alive on the other side of the ball by recording nine of their sacks over the past two games. Miami is a team on a 21-6 run UNDER the total on fieldturf, as well as 9-3-1 UNDER against a team with a winning record. Miami is also 14-5 UNDER the total in AFC East games, which mean more. The Patriots have the far better coaching staff, which is a bigger plus for these Thursday games on such short rest, as well as home field. The home team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings and Miami is just 1-4 ATS at New England. And, under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 68-46 ATS as a favorite in this range (-3.5 to -9.5 points). Take the Patriots and the UNDER.