Miami at New England

I know, I catch slack for backing the Dolphins just about every week. But, I continue to view them as a good value. They are 1-3 ATS but could a few of their losses have been pretty close. The Pats are on the verge of breaking the consecutive-win streak held by five other teams. I've always viewed the Pats as susceptible to an upset loss, however. One reason is that they have not been dominating in their run. They've won their 18 games by an average of 8.9 points per game which is a full 50% lower than the what the other five teams averaged. The Pats find ways to win but often it is a key defensive play that turns a loss into a win. One of these days the ball will bounce the other way and New Enlgand will let one slip away. Miami will be scrapping in this one as no one wants to go 0-4. As bad as their offense is, NFL player, more than those in any other sport, have a ton of pride. They have gone through enough this season and should be pissed off. They had their best game offensively of the season last week and had a chance to win before blowing it. This team also has had more than its fair share of bad luck. They lead the league in turnovers (14). If/when they get a few bounces going their way, they are going to surprise someone in an upset. The Dolphins still own the league's third best defense which gives them a chance in any game. underdogs who struggle offensively for several games in a row typically perform well against the spread as the public starts fading them hard. In this game, we also have a public favorite in New England. These factors have pushed this line a lot higher than it should be. I'll go with the Dolphins again here.