Miami at New England

The Patriots are getting a lot of pump off of their dismantling of Tennessee and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 94-7. The problem here is that those teams were winless when they met them, and still have combined for one win on the season. The psychology that plays in the minds of the oddsmakers and betting public is that New England is back in 2007 form. Let's not forget this team has lost two games already, and should have recorded a third loss vs. Buffalo if not for a miracle finish. Also, this is not the 1-15 Miami team of 2007 either it is a playoff team from a year ago with a dynamic running attack. Remember, despite the fact that the Titans were murdered, they piled up 193 yards on the ground vs. the Patriots. New England's Achilles heel is stopping the run and they will face one of the NFL's top rushing teams in the Dolphins. The Pats are allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and it is no secret that the Dolphins are going to run, shorten the game and keep the Patriots’ offense off the field for long spurts as New England has yet to prove they can stop a competent running attack. The Dolphins’ ball-control offense makes them a powerful dog to big numbers on the road as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven as a dog on the road of 10.5 or more. The Pats are getting eaten alive by big numbers, having now gone 0-8 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite of 10.5 or more. Miami has scored 30+ points now in four straight games so they can hang.  I'll take the overlay here and go with Miami.