Miami at New England

Miami has won four games, which is four more than a lot of people thought they would win this season while New England clinches a first-round bye with a win or tie or a Kansas City loss or tie. New England is 9-6 UNDER with the top-ranked defense in the league while allowing a minuscule 13.2 points per game. Miami's offense is #27 in yards gained while averaging only 18.6 points. The UNDER is 20-8 in the Patriots' last 28 games against teams with losing records, and they are 11-5 UNDER their last 16 December games. Also, the Pats are 9-3 UNDER their last 12 versus the AFC East and 18-8 UNDER their last 26 as favorites. The Dolphins are notoriously bad in cold-weather locations, and the forecast is for a high in the low 40s with a chance of rain. New England won the first meeting 43-0, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was intercepted three times. He'll get another chance this week, but since he leads his team in passing and rushing yards, the Pats defense can focus mostly on Fitzpatrick. Play the UNDER as a Max Play.