Miami at New England

The New England offense started the season very slow with talk of (gasp) needing to put Tom Brady to pasture. Then things kicked into gear and they recently went on a four-game scoring rampage of 42.5 points per game. But, variance will happen. They weren't as bad as they started and they weren't as good as the team averaging six touchdowns per game. The Pats offense has reverted back to what we saw earlier in the season as they have been ordinary in their last two games, producing just 21 vs. Green Bay and 23 vs San Diego. Miami is a strong defensive team that held the Pats to 20 points early in the season - one of eight teams that failed to top the 20-point mark this season vs. the Dolphins. New England has long been reduced offensively vs. the Dolphins who have not allowed them to top the 28-point mark in the last six meetings. New England has held 10 of 13 teams to 23 points or less, so I expect a hard-fought low scoring divisional game. Miami is 21-5 to the UNDER in their last 26 on field turf and under Joe Philbin, the Fins are 22-9 UNDER in conference games. Take the generous points here with a real defense and also take the UNDER.