Miami at Indianapolis

The Indianapolis Colts finished last season at 11-5 after winning just two games the previous year. And, they won their opener. Those 12 wins bring them into this game vastly over-rated. Why? Despite winning six more games than they lost last season, this team was out-scored by 30 points. Indianapolis won six games by four points or less and another in overtime, and nine of their eleven wins were one possession games. Despite only losing five games, they lost four of them by a combined 93 points, or by 23.3 ppg. They were not very impressive at home a week ago, as Andrew Luck was sacked four times against a poor Oakland team. The Colts had to battle from behind to steal the win. Make no mistake: the Colts are an average team (albeit with a great QB that finds ways to win). Miami was impressive last week vs. Cleveland, forcing Brandon Weeden into three INT's and six sacks. The Dolphins did not produce much on the ground, but Ryan Tannehill threw for 272 yards and a TD. That could spell trouble for a Colts secondary that is vulnerable. Miami has shined on the road, especially vs. winning teams, where they are 26-9 ATS in their last 35. One of their best stops along the way has been Indianapolis where they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips here. Play on Miami (buy to +3 if you need to).