Miami at Houston

The Miami Dolphins have to feel a bit jaded entering the 2012-13 season. They opened as a +7 point underdog over the summer, only to see the line explode to 12.5 - by far the most line movement of week one. The public doesn't seem to care. Well over 80% of the bets are coming in on the Texans here - a favorite of the squares to have a great season. Week one has only seen seven games with a higher week one line since 1990, and the favorite has come out on the short end in the majority of them. Houston is a throw-back NFL team that likes to keep it on the ground, even with a healthy Schaab at QB. They won just two home games last year by more than 10 points, so this line is really high, especially for week one when offenses are the rustiest. Ryan Tannehill has no NFL experience but he may surprise in the new Miami West Coast offense. The Miami defense is built to stop the Houston power running game, as the Fins finished third in the league last year, holding opponents to under 100 yards per game on the ground. The Dolphins have been a worthy choice on the road at 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31. Play on Miami.