Miami at Dallas

The Miami Dolphins lost their first seven games and looked to be heading for a duplicate of their 1-15 campaign from the 2007-08 season. They have rebounded nicely posting three straight wins, and amazingly have not allowed anyone in the end zone in their last three games. That all sounds well and good, but when you look at the three opponents they did it vs. a Buffalo team that has dropped off significantly and has now lost four of five scoring 26 points total in their last three. They also beat a Washington Redskins team that scored 11 total points in the two games preceding the Miami game. Miami then beat Kansas City - a team that has scored 16 total points in their last three games. Dallas is one of the top teams in the league - top 10 on both sides of the ball and they have been killer on Turkey Day. The Cowboys have been 14-2 ATS on Thanksgiving in their last 16 if they are coming in off a win, and if they are coming into the game with less than a .700 winning percentage they are 9-0 ATS. Dallas is also 10-0 ATS in their last 10 Turkey Day tilts when facing a team with a losing record. There is no doubt that the Miami offense has gotten better as they have scored 31, 20 and 36 in their last three games. Dallas is averaging over 31 in their last three games. Since last season, the Cowboys are 9-1 OVER as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range and they are 12-3 OVER during that time when coming off a game in which 50+ points were scored. Play on Dallas and take the OVER in this one.