Miami at Cincinnati

Many thought that this Cincinnati team was Super Bowl material to start the season. But, a 2-4 start says otherwise. Carson Palmer has not had the type of year for which the Bengals had hoped. The offensive line is also struggling to open holes for Cedric Benson, who is rushing at under 4 yards per carry on the season. In their four losses, they have given up 31 points per game. Two of those losses came against supposedly bad teams in Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Miami's three losses have come against the Jets, New England and Pittsburgh! The Fins have had a nearly impossible schedule with the last five games against New England, the Jets, Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. To their credit they have held serve at 3-3 and were competitive in all but one of those games. They have risen to the occasion as an underdog, having gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 and 13-3 ATS as a road dog in their last 16. The Bengals are the NFL's worst team as a favorite where they are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 in that role including 1-10 ATS since last season. Under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are 11-3 ATS as a road underdog including 6-0 as a dog of 3 points or less. Marvin Lewis is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite. Miami has played the tougher schedule, has the better record, the better team and is in a better situation. Wrong team favored. Miami covers.