Miami at Cincinnati

The Miami Dolphins started the season with a blowout loss at the hands of Houston. They then returned the favor vs. Oakland with a blowout win 35-13. Given how good Houston is, so far so good. But then Miami lost two more games to drop to 1-3. But is it that bad? Both of those losses came in OT so the Dolphins could very well be 3-1 right now. Despite the losses, the Dolphins’ offense has generated lots of yardage. They have, in fact won the battle at the line of scrimmage by +174 yards in the last three weeks. That is bad news for Cincinnati who has allowed 28 points per game despite holding the Jacksonville offense to just 10 points last week. The Bengals generate most of their yards in the passing game, as their running game has been stalled. Miami may be giving up yards, but their QB rating against is just 75.9, and they are holding teams to a 29% conversion rate on third down. The Bengals can't stop the run or pass, allowing 5.45 yards per carry on the ground. Both of these teams can move the ball, but the Dolphins have more resistance to slow down the Bengals. Miami has come up big in their last eight vs. a winning team at a flawless 8-0 ATS, while the Bengals have managed just one cover in their last 10 vs. the AFC. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are a horrible play as home chalk going just 13-25 ATS as a home favorite. My computer matchup for this game pegs the game a dead heat. Take the Fins here. Buy to +3.5 if you can. Otherwise, grab them at +3.