Miami at Chicago

The Miami Dolphins had Green Bay on the ropes last week, but a couple of penalties to keep the Packers final drive alive led to a Green Bay win in the final seconds. Miami did some good things in that game as they limited Aaron Rodgers to under 6 yards per pass attempt, sacked him three times, and made him hurry countless other times. Jay Cutler had issues last week vs. a weak Atlanta pass rush, and it didn't show up because Chicago won. He will be under siege in this one, and he has been known to get rattled when the pressure is on. While Rodgers doesn't make the mistakes under pressure, Cutler does, and I think it will slow the Bears offense and kill some drives. Miami has been a great road team over the last seven years, and own a tremendous 17-3 ATS mark in their last 20 as a road dog of less than 5 points, and they have gone 14-6 in those 20 games straight-up. Miami could very well get a pick-6 in this game with Cutler's history under pressure. Overall, the Dolphins are 4-0 to the OVER in their last four played on grass. The Bears have definitely been an OVER team when off a win where they have followed by going 20-6 in their last 26, and they have also been 25-10 to the OVER at home in their last 35 against a team with a losing road record. Over the past two seasons, Chicago is 12-4 OVER in expected clolse games and 9-1 OVER after a win. The Bears' struggles at home have left them at 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21. And, the past three seasons the Bears are just 2-10 ATS vs. teams like Miami that average 350+ yards per game on offense. Finaly, under Marc Trestman, the Bears are just 1-8 ATS at home. Take Miami and the OVER.