Miami at Buffalo

Miami scored the most points in a game since 1966 and overwhelmed Denver 70-20 and now the Dolphins are underdogs on the road at Buffalo. Miami is 7-0 ATS its past seven games versus AFC opponents, 6-0 ATS its past six overall and 5-0 ATS on the road dating to last season. Tua Tagovailoa completed his first 17 pass attempts and the Dolphins scored touchdowns on eight of nine drives before they mercifully brought in backup QB Mike White. These teams met three times in 2022-23 and each game was decided by a field goal or less, including Buffalo's 34-31 playoff win with the Dolphins a 14-point underdog. Therefore revenge is an added factor in this matchup and Miami is 7-0 ATS after scoring at least 35 points. The Bills had no trouble with Washington as Josh Allen threw for 218 yards and a TD and ran for a score and the defense forced five turnovers. However, Buffalo always does well against rookie QBs and in this case it was Sam Howell, but Tagovailoa will be a different story. The Bills have gone UNDER five straight October games and they have seven consecutive UNDERS as favorites of 0.5-3.0 points. Miami is 18-8 UNDER as a road dog of 0.5-3.0 points and 22-8 UNDER after winning by more than 14 points. Take the Dolphins and the UNDER.