Miami at Buffalo

The Dolphins are a good football team but their recent results have been a bit misleading. Four weeks ago they beat the Jets but in that game they were out-played and were outgained by over 200 yards. They gained a total of 104 yards in that game. The following week they lost by double digits to the Pats. Then, they struggled against the Buccaneers, barely garnering a 2-point win at home as a double-digit favorite. Last week against Carolina they were again out-gained, but managed to win. So, my feeling is they are a bit overrated at this point. They now head to the road where they are posted as a favorite, always a dangerous situation for a struggling team. Miami's run defense has been getting eaten alive as they have now gone six straight games yielding 109 yards or more. The Bills have been struggling themselves. Or have they? They have had the unfortunate luck of playing their last three games against hot opponents, all of which were on two-game winning streaks and playing their best football of the season at the time. The Bills have covered the spread in three of their last five games. The Dolphins have followed an ATS win by going 13-28-1 ATS in their next game over the last 42, and do not wear the favorite hat very well as they are a futile 7-23 ATS in their last 30 in the favorite role. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Buffalo. The Fins have gone 0-7 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that score under 17 points per game and they are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 vs. teams at .400 or worse. The public is all over Miami here to the tune of 74%, but I like Buffalo to keep this one close.