Miami at Baltimore

The Maimi Dolphins opened last season with a win and then proceeded to lose seven straight. The team really came together as they closed out 2021 with an 8-1 record over their last nine games, which carried over into a dominating Week 1 win over New England, 20-7. Early in the season, these lopsided divisional wins have created great value on the total, with double-digit winners like Miami going 135-90 OVER (60%). On the road, that record improves to 76-45 OVER (63%). The Fish are now 10-1 in their last 11 and slide completely under the radar, getting more than field goal here. Baltimore handled the Jets 24-9 in their opener, but the Ravens finished 2021 on a 3-8 run and ended up with a losing record. I think Miami has done a lot more to improve itself and is the better of these two teams. Baltimore managed more than 22 points just once in their last nine games, and their 24 points vs. the Jets was unimpressive. Conference favorites that had a losing record last season are 137-211 ATS over the last 39 years. I like Miami to cover and for this game to sail OVER the total.