Miami at Baltimore

The Baltimore defense is showing signs of age, and isn't playing up to the same level we have seen over the past several years. When you see teams like Cincinnati, Cleveland and Buffalo go for over 100 yards on the ground vs. this Ravens defense, you know it isn't the same. They have dropped from the No. 4 defense in yards allowed a year ago, to No. 10 this year. It's the Baltimore offense that is now carrying this team. Joe Flacco is improving and their running game is solid, leading to 31 points per game scored at home this season. Miami has had to settle for 10 field goals the last two weeks as they have sputtered in the red-zone, converting just 28% of redzone opportunities into touchdowns. Their season average is sill close to 50%, and last year was over 64% inside the red-zone, so I don't think it is anything more than normal variance. The fact that they have gotten into field-goal range 10 times in two games shows that they are moving the ball, and the offense is playing well. Just two of their last eight vs. AFC opponents have played UNDER. The Ravens are now 5-1 to the OVER in their last six as a home favorite. When the Ravens allow over 250 yards in the air in their previous game as is the case here, they have played to a 37-18-2 mark to the OVER. I like this game to go OVER the total.