Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati

Will the opening kick-off in the Super Bowl be a touchback? You might be tempted to bet "yes" on this prop, and not just because human beings like betting "yes" better than "no" in general. In the 2021 season, 58% of kickoffs resulted in a touchback. Matt Gay has seen a 63.7% touchback rate and Evan McPherson a 60.4% rate. The sportsbooks have used these stats and have made the "yes" the favorite on this bet. You'd have to lay -150 odds on the yes. Seems to make sense. But as with many of the props here, the Super Bowl is different! History, and logic, tell us that they got this one way wrong. If we look at the Super Bowls since 2001, we have seen 18 of 20 result in the "no" on this bet coming through a winner. So what looks like a 36% to 42% chance initially, suddenly becomes a 10% chance (2 out of 20), based on Super Bowl history. But why is this the case? Consider what Pat McAfee, former NFL punter has said: "There isn't normally a touchback on the opening kickoff because the ball is a brand new ball, it's basically just plastic. Most balls that you kick have been rubbed down for 30 minutes by your equipment manager and the other team's equipment manager in the presence of an NFL official and it's beat up a little bit ... the Super Bowl kickoff ball, that ball goes immediately to the Hall of Fame right after the kick, so it is not beat to hell and back for 30 minutes by an equipment manager. It's very difficult to kick a touchback." Couple that with the fact that the first player to touch the football in this very nerve-racking game on the international stage is the kicker. Nerves are high. And, the receiving player would love to make a big play and may be more inclined to run it out of the end-zone than he is during a normal mundane regular-season game. Grab the "no" on this bet as a Max Play, that has a 90% chance of winning, at plus odds.