Miami is getting a ton of points as expected, but this is too many for a team at home against another team that is 1-2 straight-up and 0-2-1 ATS. Melvin Gordon is reportedly ready to end his holdout with the Chargers, but his absence hasn't been a big problen as Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have combined for 302 rushing yards in the first three games. Keenan Allen caught 13 passes for a career-high 183 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. The Dolphins kept it close for a half against Dallas, but then the Cowboys got a front door cover with a fourth-quarter touchdown to win 31-6. Josh Rosen went 18-of-39 for 200 yards with no TDs or interceptions and he's expected to start this week despite a minor hand injury. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS the last four meetings at Miami and 1-8-2 ATS their last 11 September games. Also, the Chargers have gone OVER in five of their last seven September games and they are 18-5 OVER their last 23 Week 4 games. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 44.3 points and that is near the posted total for this game. Grab the big points with the Dolphins as a Max Play and go with the OVER.
This pick was released to clients on September 29, 2023 at 11:34AM ET.
NFL
Los Angeles at Miami
September 29, 2019
1:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Miami +15.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total OVER 44.5 -108 (risk 1 to return 1.93)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
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